Strategies for Surviving Peak Oil

As oil producing companies as well as their respective organizations are expressing their uncertainty on the longevity of the supply of cheap oil, the question that is making everyone anxious is – how much oil is left? What are the strategies that we can adopt to sustain the oil supply? And most importantly, which countries are best equipped for a peak oil situation?

The following chart shows various oil producing countries and the year in which production hit the peak.

Country	Peak Production	2008 Production	% Of Peak	Peak Year
United States	11297	7337	-35%	1970
Venezuela	3754	2566	-32%	1970
Libya	3357	1846	-45%	1970
Other Middle East	79	33	-58%	1970
Kuwait	3339	2784	-17%	1972
Iran	6060	4325	-29%	1974
Indonesia	1685	1004	-41%	1977
Romania	313	99	-68%	1977
Trinidad & Tobago	230	149	-35%	1978
Iraq	3489	2423	-31%	1979
Brunei	261	175	-33%	1979
Tunisia	118	89	-25%	1980
Peru	196	120	-39%	1982
Cameroon	181	84	-54%	1985
Other Europe & Eurasia	762	427	-44%	1986
Russian Federation	11484	9886	-14%	1987*
Egypt	941	722	-23%	1993
Other Asia Pacific	276	237	-14%	1993
India	774	766	-1%	1995*
Syria	596	398	-33%	1995
Gabon	365	235	-36%	1996
Argentina	890	682	-23%	1998
Colombia	838	618	-26%	1999
United Kingdom	2909	1544	-47%	1999
Rep. of Congo (Brazzaville)	266	249	-6%	1999*
Uzbekistan	191	111	-42%	1999
Australia	809	556	-31%	2000
Norway	3418	2455	-28%	2001
Oman	961	728	-24%	2001
Yemen	457	305	-33%	2002
Other S. & Cent. America	153	138	-10%	2003*
Mexico	3824	3157	-17%	2004
Malaysia	793	754	-5%	2004*
Vietnam	427	317	-26%	2004
Denmark	390	287	-26%	2004
Other Africa	75	54	-28%	2004*
Nigeria	2580	2170	-16%	2005*
Chad	173	127	-27%	2005*
Italy	127	108	-15%	2005*
Ecuador	545	514	-6%	2006*
Saudi Arabia	11114	10846	-2%	2005 / Growing
Canada	3320	3238	-2%	2007 / Growing
Algeria	2016	1993	-1%	2007 / Growing
Equatorial Guinea	368	361	-2%	2007 / Growing
China	3795	3795	-	Growing
United Arab Emirates	2980	2980	-	Growing
Brazil	1899	1899	-	Growing
Angola	1875	1875	-	Growing
Kazakhstan	1554	1554	-	Growing
Qatar	1378	1378	-	Growing
Azerbaijan	914	914	-	Growing
Sudan	480	480	-	Growing
Thailand	325	325	-	Growing
Turkmenistan	205	205	-	Growing
Peaked / Flat Countries Total	-	49597	-	60.6% of world oil production
Growing Countries Total	-	32223	-	39.4% of world oil production

Courtesy BP Statistical Review of World Energy; 2009 Edition.

According to this table, among 54 enlisted countries, 40 of which production of oil is in decline. Specifically in 30 countries (which are not marked by *) oil reserves are at their lowest level whereas the other 10 countries are observing a steady decline in oil production. 14 countries are somehow able to produce oil at an increasing pace. Overall, 61% of world’s oil producers are experiencing significant declines in oil extraction. In 2008 the global production rate of oil was 74.74 million barrels/day, though the following year it dropped to a rate of 72 mb/d. Based on these observations, the International Energy Agency and the US Energy Information Administration has predicted a yearly loss of 2.2 mb/d in the oil production rate.

Strategies

The biggest portion of petrochemicals used is in the transportation sector. In order to reduce oil consumption, a reduction in the number of personal cars is one option. The use of public transportation instead of personal cars would save a substantial fuel loss. Also, in the case of short or medium range journey, the use of a bicycle is encouraging from a health, economic and energy saving perspective. The addiction to the convenience and necessity of keeping unnecessary numbers of cars on the road should be restricted by government imposing strict laws in the usage and ownership of more than one vehicle. Events such as car racing, formula 1 competition, motorcycle racing, high-speed boat racing or any kind of sports that destroy huge amount fuel for fun only has to be stopped. If there is any hope of transportation in the future, a solution using alternative energy sources in transport must be researched adequately, to ensure that it is sustainable and not just an energy transfer from oil.

The second biggest area of petroleum utilization is the agricultural sector. From the moment of the green revolution onward, the whole world has been immensely obsessed with the use of fertilizers, pesticides, preservatives, etc in agriculture, which are hugely dependant on fossil fuel. Due to significant use of these chemicals, the fertility of the land is also decreasing. Hence, a drastic change in the agricultural field is needed, to sustainable, environmentally respectable practices.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba’s economy plunged into oblivion due to their over dependence on the energy sources of the Soviets. To survive from this dire stage, Cuba started to use permaculture as a new system of food production. In this system, most of the food sources are produced in farms, gardens, houses or any free land by using only human and animal power.

The use of alternative energy sources in place of crude oil can help in keeping our remaining oil resources intact. Alternative energies can be classified in three types – renewable alternative energy, bio-energy and nuclear energy.

· So far best available renewable alternative emery source is solar energy due to its unlimited abundance. The photovoltaic cells (PVC) are used to convert solar energy to storage-able medium. In the beginning although a bigger amount of budget is needed for institution of PVC plants, but in longer run its will prove its utility in every aspect. In this list the next easily available energy source would be wind energy. In the western cost of U.S huge no of wind mills are planted to convert the strong Trans Atlantic wind current into electricity. Just like solar plants wind mills also require some larger amount of investment in the beginning; hence with the active cooperation of government and energy treading companies this kind of mega projects can be successfully put into practice. Next is tidal energy. Mainly this energy is converted from strong tidal current and temperature differences underneath the sea. But very little advancement has done in this matter as the project is still in its research level.

· Bio-energy refers to the energy or fuel that is derived from biomass. Befouls can be of three types. Naturally produced alcohols, naturally produced biogases, naturally produced oils. Uses of these biofuels are most in residential usages like cooking, room hitting etc. In case production of small scale or commercial electricity use of methane is already in progress. In Germany biofuels are taking place of petroleum derived fuels in agricultural field. According to their ambitious plan, within next decade they will replace every natural oil based technologies with biofuel generated tools.

· In US at present 20-25% of total power supply comes from nuclear energy sources. There are some basic advantages of nuclear energy has over fossil fuels. Like natural oil nuclear energy does not produce greenhouse gases which are the main reason of pollution and global warming. In recent development nuclear materials are using in spacecraft as a supplement of carbon fuels. It also allows the spaceships to dispose the radioactive wastages in space so that earth’s environment remains pure.

After energy related discussion let’s concentrate of the nature changes in social lifestyle. In modern day’s life in cities or metropolitans are equipped with facilities of domestic as well as executive appliances. But the main ingredients of all these products come from rural areas. Hence in post oil era cities no longer can survive as they are not at all self sufficient in basic need of life i.e. food. In this case villages have a distinct edge being self dependent. So generation of village centric life is probably the best option to deal with this problem in initial stage.

Condition of different countries to encounter peak oil

In general point of view everyone will vote developed countries to be best option to fight peak oil disaster due to their more advanced technology, application proficiency and better management skills. But instant drawing of such conclusion is not totally accurate. Due to their better economic condition advanced countries are more addicted to natural oil products and their technology is still not entirely sufficient to replace natural oil from every aspects like with other energy options. So a thorough investigation based on salient parameters is needed to understand the total issue.

Abundance of arable land is the most determining factor as increase of global population is also included in this matter. To compensate the food scarcity with reduction of natural oil and other energy sources needs more and more arable land for production. In US, due to its large area and not so big population the arable density is most favorable, that means the no of Americans depending on unit area is minimal. Though Norway has a better ratio value but due to its adverse weather cultivation would be difficult. Among European countries France has better arable density than U.K, Ireland, Czech Republic and so on. In Asian countries the scenario is opposite for their intense population. Most of the Asian countries with Bangladesh at the end lie in the bottom of the list.

The use of natural oil derived fertilizes usually degrades the fertility of land. Hence application of organic agriculture will take much time as the land has to regain its normal productivity. According to CIA World Factbook Egypt, Bangladesh use maximum amount of nitrogenous fertilizers, pesticides in per square kilometer of agricultural land. Though the total consumption of fertilizers is highest in case of both U.S and Russia, but the large availability of arable land lowers the amount of fertilizer used per square kilometer.

Availability of Energy is another important parameter. Since most of the energy of world still heavily dependent of fossil fuel, remaining storage of fossil fuel of a country will determine its chance of survival in peak oil situation. In case of Canada the tar sands seems to be the largest existing oil deposit in world. But due to inaccessibility and hostile weather condition people still prefers those dying Saudi Arabian oil wells. The next frequently used fossil fuel is coal. Though in world the storage of coal is much higher than that of oil still oil is largely used in energy production due to its higher energy production capacity. The storage of coal is highest in U.S and Russia comparatively. Then comes China, India, Australia and others. But due to the same population problem the energy per capita is much lower in case of China and India. Also in this case U.S and Russia leads the list with high energy value per capita. Still a question always remains – how long U.S and Russia can manage their energy needs with own resources?

Hydroelectric energy which is a totally different form of energy, now-a day’s playing important role in determining countries position in pick oil situation. Being produced from water like renewable source it can escape any peak situation. According to Energy Information Administration in the year 2006, China was world’s largest hydroelectric energy producer followed by Canada, Brazil, U.S, Russia and others.

Finally if we gather all respective data regarding these parameters and perform a simple cumulative measurement it can be seen that Russia Brazil and U.S leads the chart in sustaining peak oil condition. Nevertheless there are many micros as well as macro parameters are left outside this study for the sake of simplicity, further studies are needed for more accurate interpretation.

Life without Oil

Articles based on the title of “Life Without Oil” mainly discuss the survival strategies of man in post oil condition. Without oil our civilization will be pushed back to post–industrial era where huge scarcity will be observed in each and every sector of life. Now on a rigorous change is needed in every aspects of life. But the actual fact is no one can change their behavior, lifestyle, manner of thinking in few hours so that they can survive in oil less world. It needs a long-term exercise to fit ourselves to that disastrous condition which will come sooner or later. Therefore the basis areas which need most attention are- food, medicine, housing, education, transport etc. let’s see what could be the possible ways are out there for accomplishing those needs without using a single drop oil.

Foods

Without petroleum the immediate effect would be huge shortage of food materials. Agriculture is almost entire dependent on oil by means of fertilizers, or direct use of oil in tractor like equipments and in many other ways, so in oil less world all these works will be executed by mortal powers. Hence production of sufficient amount of foods, continuous supplies of foods to everyone and effective building of stock are necessary. In initial steps allotment of new lands foe agriculture is need, this will help in increasing foods as well as secure jobs for the unemployed persons. Any kind of free land whether it is in anyone’s garden or backyard or even If it is waste land are all required to be treated proper way for effective cultivation. In case of scarcity of agricultural land government would allow the removal of closed industries, factories and entrust those lands to the farmers. Enforcement of domestic law like parting of some specific percentage of land for agriculture before construction house will increase the production rate. As a matter of consequence there will be a large pool of arable lands just like people had in ancient age.

In case of large arable land completion of all kinds of laborious work can be done by using domestic animals. Here comes the importance of farm like establishment as it also comes handy in supplying required animal proteins to the society. Introduction of production based payment from owner or government will encourage the farmers for better rate of production. One thing is needed to be sure that lesser no of third party dealers between government and farmers will help to keep the price of foods in control. That means small number of farmers based cultural similarity will form small groups and those groups will be directly controlled by state authorities. By using tax policy on food materials in market government will earn the required revenue. But the rate of tax would be lower for those farmers who directly produce that particular food material in their lands, otherwise they will not all be interested in treading their serials.

The use of synthetic food materials seems to be getting better prospect in future. Because during shortage of green vegetables in market, the stored synthetic foods will composite the requirement of energy.

The need of fertilizer would be attenuated using more organic materials based approach. Use of organic materials such as rest part of green vegetables which are generally not used in cooking will do the work of fertilizes. Establishment of agricultural research center and microorganisms culturing farms is also a part of this program. All theses canters will provide useful and farmer-friendly insects, worms, microorganisms etc which will increase the fertility of lands manifolds.

The utility of organic farming using mortal power has huge impact in energy sectors. There will be no need of electricity or any kind of power supply even it comes of renewable energy sources. Thus an estimate of 50-65% energy consumption can be saved in daily basis.

Medicine

Though medicine has no direct connection with natural oil, still it cannot escape from oil catastrophe. With depletion oil in society the price of every commodity will go higher and finally will be extinguished from market. But disappearance of life saving stuffs does not fall in same category of any luxury item so that it can be managed by common people any way. To encounter such situation the age old proverb – prevention is better than cure will show the way. The process has to be start from early stage of life. At first every pregnant mother has to be vaccinated in time. After the birth of baby he or she also has to be vaccinated. There is nothing new in it. The difference is that in oil less world all those dosages of vaccination would be mandatory. No of sufficient doctors is another matter of concern. For better treatment and timely checkup the ratio of people and doctors would be 100:1. To provide such a mammoth no of doctors sufficient numbers of medical schools with adequate experience gathering courses are also required. Now comes some ethical issues. To stay healthy everyone needs to live on green vegetables, low calorie congaing foods, least fast foods. Regular exercise as well as walking cycling is also required. This will also help in minimizing the energy consumption of transport vehicles. A doctor has to accept the fact that medicine is more imperative than just a job. In city or rural area number of doctors and nurses against some specific number of residents has to be determined. This will save both man power and economic wastages. The salary of doctors should be determined on the basis of regular evacuation done by the local residents. The doctors need to take initiative of regular check up people so that they can stay away from getting sick. Hence unnecessary spending on health issue can be avoided. In future time the research on vaccine and preventive measures needed to be increased. With more advanced genetic engineering any kind of anomaly of babies need be administered well before their birth.

Education

After Food and medicine education seems to be the most priority given sector. Without complete education punctuality cannot be attained and without punctuality survival with limited resources in next to impossible. Here complete education does not refer to the journey from nursery school to university or further. Knowledge gathered from secondary education is sufficient in leading live in dignified and lawful manner. The classes can be separated in nursery for 1-9 years, secondary for 10-12 years and so on. Government would assure the right of every child to study till secondary level. Similar to the case of people and doctors ratio here presence of a 1 teacher per 100 children will be beneficial for accurate learning. Engaging such a huge number of teachers is not an easy task. Use of media will be a suitable alternative in this subject. So far TV has become an irreplaceable item in our life, with this learning will be more amusing than never before. During secondary education teaching of craftsmanship in different vacation will help in utilizing the spare time. In other way this will keep the local crafts alive. At university level more employment based and contemporary course works will be required. Studies like agronomy, marine science, microbiology, genetics, biotechnology, alternative energies would be highly demanded. Only studying will not totally fulfill the requirement on those days. Application or hand based experience will be much cherished. Hence besides classroom works participation on different science related seminars, workshops, project programs will be needed. For university students provision of greater research opportunity will help in understanding different unknown dimensions of nature as well as science. As discussed in the earlier segment medicine will be another demanding region of study.

Housing

The concept of housing in future age will be different from present. Now a day’s people use habituated with hugely spacious living room, bedroom etc. Sometimes size of the house bears the sigh of owner’s wealth and prosperity. But in oil less world there seems to no existence of words like wealth and prosperity as everyone has to fight for their own survival. Then houses will be designed on the basis of member of the family. By stopping unnecessary large houses government can save more lands for the sake of mass interest such as agriculture, playground or park formation, establishment of market complex etc. During formation of those houses employment young trainees will create scope for hands on experiences. The building materials will be supplied only by government affiliated organizations; hence quality of those materials will be same for everyone in nominal price. Another advantage of small houses is that the energy consumption in those instances will be much lesser. In case supplying water more careful measures will be needed as the drinking water is no longer considered as a renewable source. This will not be possible without mass awareness. So government will start campaigning on water saving otherwise adding tax on water will be a permanent solution. For supplying energy to the houses use of solar panel will be a wise step. This will not only make common people self dependent in energy production also the expenditure on energy consumption will decrease.

Transport

Without oil transportation system in future era will be totally different. Though there are some options like walking, bicycling or horse-riding will always be available but in case of travelling longer distances those sound pretty odd. Cars driven by electricity or solar power will be the best option. Like today’s refueling centers in future there will be electrical charging hotspots where people will have the chance to recharge their vehicles. Number of personal vehicles will be lesser in comparison to the public transports. In case of personal vehicle owners there may be rule of minimum number of travelers while driving in road; otherwise they will have to share their vehicle with other persons. With decrease of private vehicles the traffic congestion will also reduce. As a result people will reach their destination in shorter time. Moreover with larger number of people being engage in cultivation hopefully number of travelers on road will decrease significantly.

Treading

Treading seems to be one of the oldest occupations so far man has. In future hopefully there will be no change in this trend. But materials of trading will change a lot. Mostly Food based items will get much preference than anything else. Treading of animals like primitive ages would also have the possibility to begin. Because in oil less world existence of other non-rechargeable energy sources will be minimum as man will exploit those as soon as oil ends. Treading of precious metals will fall in comparison to heavy metals as man’s primary focus would be survival and enhancement of life, not enrichment of personal desires. Energy sector will be another region where chance of rise in trading opportunity is moderately high. Regarding currency system some changes can occur.

Other Notable Changes

The first notable change would be abolition military power. Though at the ending of oil era there may be some more conflicts over the possession of earth’s remaining source of energy, though it will stop with exhaustion of rest energy sources. Hopefully at that time the dispute over world’s management power will also come to an end. Therefore such huge military power will no longer be needed. Secondly during those conflicts a reckonable part of world population most probably will abolish. For rest of people it will not be an easy task to put life back in earth in notable way.

There is a proverb – “It is easy to say but hard to execute”. It is exactly applicable here. So far we have discussed various possibilities ways with all sorts of permutation and combination of differently possible situations. Some of these ideas such as equality among people are really impossible to bring in realistic world. Many of our great men already have tried this. But no one can predict the future. Whatever may be the situation would be we can only pray for the best interest of our world as well as its residents.